Latest UCI-OC Poll explains November election results

Irvine, Calif., Dec. 6, 2024 — In last month’s general election, Orange County voters picked Democrat Kamala Harris for president and Republican Steve Garvey for Senate, as well as Democrat Dave Min for the 47^th Congressional District and Michelle Steele for the 45^th.

Produced by the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine, the latest UCI-OC Poll solidifies the county’s “purple” status, with its voters evenly split – 31 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, 28 percent independent and 10 percent other.

“The results of our latest poll help explain the election’s outcomes and further showcase Orange County as a bellwether for larger political dynamics afoot across the country,” said Jon B. Gould, dean of the School of Social Ecology.

The poll surveyed 838 residents of Orange County after the Nov. 5 general election. Among the findings:

• Orange County voters believe that the U.S. and California are on the wrong track but are more confident about Orange County. However, there are strong partisan differences: 79 percent of Donald Trump voters are dissatisfied with the Golden State, while 57 percent of Harris voters are satisfied with California.
• Voter turnout declined by more than 10 percentage points between 2020 and 2024, going from 87 percent of registered voters to 76 percent.
• Participation rates also varied by age, race and education. The most likely demographic to have voted in 2024 were white, college-educated senior citizens (98 percent of those 65 and older voted, while only 68 percent of those with no college education voted).
• Trump’s voters were more excited to cast their vote for him than Harris’ supporters were to vote for her. Only 37 percent of her voters said they were “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 59 percent of Trump’s voters who were “very excited” to vote for him.
• Orange County residents do not approve of Joe Biden’s performance as president. More than 6 in 10 registered voters disapprove, and 40 percent strongly disapprove of Biden’s record. Trump received 80 percent of his support from those voters who strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance. “Absent fully separating herself from Biden, Harris had a baked-in disadvantage that was going to make winning nationwide difficult,” Gould noted.
• Only 20 percent of O.C. voters say that their economic situation is better today than it was four years ago, and half believe that they’re not doing well economically. “Donald Trump benefited substantially from voters pessimistic about the nation’s economy or their own situation,” Gould said. “In fact, among voters who believe they are doing worse today, Trump received two times the level of his support compared to that of Harris.”
• Seven in 10 O.C. voters support abortion rights, believing the procedure should be legal in all or most cases. Just 6 percent think it should be illegal in all cases. Women are 10 percentage points more likely than men to support abortion rights and are significantly more likely than men to believe that abortion should be legal in all cases. However, more than 60 percent of men do support abortion rights. Asian voters are the most supportive, followed by Latino and white voters. In contrast to Harris’ campaign strategy, half of Trump’s support came from voters who believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
• Only 9 percent of Trump voters believe abortion should be outlawed completely.
• Women were much more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, while men favored the Republican candidate.
• Younger voters preferred the Democrat, whereas older voters supported the Republican. But voters between 40 and 55 were evenly divided between Harris and Trump.
• Fifty-six percent of white voters supported Trump, while Latino (54 percent) and Asian (58 percent) voters favored Harris.
• Harris won the poorest O.C. residents’ vote (59 percent of those earning less than $25,000 a year), while Trump took the middle class (those earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually). Residents earning more than $100,000 per year were split.
• Voters for Harris and Trump disagreed significantly about the desirability of power sharing in Washington, D.C. Almost 4 in 5 Harris voters favored divided government, saying it’s better to have different parties controlling Congress and the White House to provide checks and balances. By contrast, Trump voters were split, with nearly half believing it’s better to have one party in control, thereby “allowing more to get done.”
• O.C. residents (29 percent) are more afraid than relieved or hopeful about the election results.
• Republicans are 24 times more likely than Democrats and almost 2.7 times more likely than independents to be relieved about the election results.
• Republicans are also three times more likely than Democrats and 30 percent more likely than independents to be hopeful about the results.
• About half of the county’s residents believe the Harris campaign engaged in various dirty campaign tricks. But 74 percent of residents believe the Trump campaign intimidated voters, and 66 percent and 65 percent, respectively, think the campaign sought to suppress voter turnout and solicited foreign interference.
• Fifty percent of O.C. residents believe the future of democracy in America is insecure. More than 60 percent of Democrats are concerned, followed by 54 percent of independents. In contrast, 57 percent of Republicans believe democracy is somewhat or very secure.

“The results from this poll are instructive for not only Orange County but also the nation,” Gould explained. “As one of the nation’s few truly purple counties, there is a lot in O.C.’s electoral results – and, most importantly, the reasons for them – that the two parties and elected leaders should take to heart as they seek to chart a path forward.”

Note to reporters: Experts will discuss the latest UCI-OC Poll on Friday, Dec. 6, at UC Irvine. Members of the media interested in covering the event are asked to contact Mimi Ko Cruz at 714-932-8589 or mkcruz@uci.edu. The poll (to be made public at 12 a.m. Pacific time on Dec. 6) is available to the media here: https://bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/sites.uci.edu/dist/5/5275/files/2024/12/UCI-OC-Poll-Dec.-6-2024.pdf.

About UC Irvine’s Brilliant Future campaign: Publicly launched on Oct. 4, 2019, the Brilliant Future campaign aims to raise awareness and support for the university. By engaging 75,000 alumni and garnering $2 billion in philanthropic investment, UC Irvine seeks to reach new heights of excellence in student success, health and wellness, research and more. The School of Social Ecology plays a vital role in the success of the campaign. Learn more at https://brilliantfuture.uci.edu/uci-school-of-social-ecology.

About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UC Irvine is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and is ranked among the nation’s top 10 public universities by U.S. News & World Report. The campus has produced five Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, premier research, innovation and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UC Irvine has more than 36,000 students and offers 224 degree programs. It’s located in one of the world’s safest and most economically vibrant communities and is Orange County’s second-largest employer, contributing $7 billion annually to the local economy and $8 billion statewide. For more on UC Irvine, visit www.uci.edu.

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